Breaking Down Pokémon TCG Mega Evolution Pull Rates

Pull rates are from TCG player data, based on 5,000 packs opening, with 95% confidence.

If you’ve ever cracked open a Pokémon TCG booster pack, you know the thrill of chasing that elusive rare card. But just how likely are you to pull a Double Rare, Ultra Rare, or even a Special Illustration Rare? Let’s cut through the noise and break down the pull rates, so you know exactly what you’re up against.

Double Rare: The Common Gem

Double Rare cards are the bread and butter of modern Pokémon TCG sets. With a pull rate of 20.91% ± 1.12%, you’re looking at roughly 1 in 5 packs containing one of these cards. That means if you buy a booster box (36 packs), you can expect to pull around 7 Double Rares. These cards are a solid addition to any collection or deck, and their relatively high pull rate makes them accessible for most players.

Ultra Rare: The Middle Ground

Ultra Rare cards are where things start to get a bit more exclusive. With a pull rate of 8.23% ± 0.76%, you’re looking at about 1 in 12 packs containing an Ultra Rare. That means, on average, you’ll pull around 3 Ultra Rares per booster box. These cards often feature powerful Pokémon with unique abilities, making them a sought-after prize for both collectors and competitive players.

Illustration Rare: The Artistic Edge

Illustration Rare cards are a treat for the eyes, featuring stunning artwork that sets them apart from the rest. With a pull rate of 10.89% ± 0.86%, you’re looking at roughly 1 in 9 packs containing an Illustration Rare. That means you can expect to pull around 4 of these beauties in a booster box. While they may not always be the most powerful cards in a set, their aesthetic appeal makes them a favorite among collectors.

Special Illustration Rare: The Holy Grail

Now we’re talking about the crème de la crème—Special Illustration Rare cards. These are the cards that make headlines, and for good reason. With a pull rate of 0.99% ± 0.27%, you’re looking at a staggering 1 in 101 packs chance of pulling one. That means you’d need to open nearly three booster boxes (108 packs) to have a decent shot at landing one of these ultra-exclusive cards. Special Illustration Rares are the pinnacle of rarity and desirability, often commanding top dollar on the secondary market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re a casual player or collector, Double Rares and Ultra Rares are within reach with just a few booster packs. Illustration Rares add a splash of artistry to your collection, while Special Illustration Rares remain the ultimate trophy for the most dedicated (and lucky) among us.

For those looking to maximize their pulls, buying booster boxes is the way to go. With 36 packs in a box, you’re statistically more likely to hit those Ultra Rares and Illustration Rares. But remember, luck is always a factor—some boxes may yield multiple hits, while others might leave you wanting more.

Final Thoughts

Pokémon TCG pull rates are a fascinating blend of probability and excitement. Whether you’re chasing Double Rares for your deck or dreaming of that Special Illustration Rare, understanding the odds can help you set realistic expectations. So, the next time you crack open a pack, remember: every pull is a step closer to your next big find.

Good luck, trainers—may your packs be filled with the rarest of the rare!