Is the Mega Charizard X ex Worth the 1,260-Pack Grind?
- SLAB-Z
- Nov 21, 2025
- 3 min read
Updated: Apr 23
The Phantasmal Flames Pokémon TCG set has collectors and players chasing fiery dragons and cosmic rarities. However, with pull rates this brutal, is cracking packs worth the cost? We break down the odds for every rarity tier, from budget-friendly Double Rares to the set’s mythical Mega Charizard X ex.
You can also check out what are the Top 10 Most Expensive Phantasmal Flames Cards here, where we also dive into the ongoing dip in Pokémon cards and whether or not you should consider buying. Average prices and data are from TCG Player as of the publishing date of this article.
Understanding Pull Rates
Understanding pull rates is crucial for collectors. It helps you gauge the likelihood of obtaining specific cards. The Phantasmal Flames set features various tiers, each with different odds.
Double Rare (1 in 5 Packs)
Pull Rate: 20.77% (±1.12%)
Total Cards: 10
Price Range per Card: $1–$6
Packs Needed to Collect All: ~50
Total Cards Cost (buying singles): $13
Double Rares are the set’s most accessible hits. One appears in every five packs. While these regular-art Pokémon ex cards, like Mega Gengar ex ($3), are tournament staples, their low value makes them better for deck builders than investors.
Ultra Rare (1 in 12 Packs)
Pull Rate: 8.06% (±0.75%)
Total Cards: 17
Price Range Per Card: $1–$50
Packs Needed to Collect All: ~204
Total Cards Cost (Buying singles): $107
Ultra Rares include Mega Charizard X ex - 109/094 ($46), which is the chase of the bunch. While Grimsley's Move ($3) and Battle Cage ($5) have niche playability, most Ultra Rares struggle to justify their 1-in-12 pack odds.
Illustration Rare (1 in 9 Packs)
Pull Rate: 10.97% (±0.86%)
Total Cards: 13
Price Range Per Card: $1–$25
Packs Needed to Collect All: ~117
Total Cards Cost (Buying singles): $104
These alternate-art commons and uncommons are Phantasmal Flames’ hidden gems. Meowth ($25) and Piplup ($18) showcase stunning artwork. They make for affordable collector pieces despite their 1-in-9 pack frequency.
Special Illustration Rare (1 in 80 Packs)
Pull Rate: 1.25% (±0.31%)
Total Cards: 5
Price Range Per Card: $29–$780
Packs Needed to Collect All: ~400
Total Cards Cost (Buying singles): $930
The set’s premium tier features hyper-detailed alternate arts. The Mega Charizard X ex - 125/094 ($780) is the grail. Dawn ($56) and Mega Lopunny ex ($43) are next favorites. However, with odds of 1-in-80 packs, buying singles is far cheaper than chasing these in sealed products.
Mega Hyper Rare (1 in 1,260 Packs)
Pull Rate: 0.08% (±0.08%)
Total Cards: 1
Price Range Per Card: $573
Packs Needed to Pull It: ~1,260
Total Cards Cost (Buying singles): $573
The crown jewel of Phantasmal Flames, Mega Charizard X ex ($573), is a statistical nightmare. With odds mirroring the lottery (1-in-1,260 packs), pulling this gold-etched dragon would cost over $3,780 (at $3/pack)—far above its current market value. Right now, this is the rarest card to get, and yet it sells for 75% of the Mega Charizard X ex SIR's value.
Should You Buy Packs or Singles?
Double/Ultra Rares: Buy singles—most cost less than a pack.
Illustration Rares: Target favorites like Meowth ($25) outright.
Special Illustration Rares: Dawn ($56) is cheaper than 80 packs ($240).
Mega Charizard X ex: Only gamble if you enjoy burning money.
Pull Rate Summary Table
Rarity | Pull Rate (Per Pack) | Total Cards | Total Packs to Complete |
Double Rare | 1 in 5 | 10 | ~50 |
Ultra Rare | 1 in 12 | 17 | ~204 |
Illustration Rare | 1 in 9 | 13 | ~117 |
Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 80 | 5 | ~400 |
Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 1,260 | 1 | ~1,260 |
Final Verdict
Phantasmal Flames is a $1,700+ investment to complete in buying singles. This starkly reminds us that modern Pokémon sets prioritize scarcity over accessibility. Unless you’re hunting thrills (or Charizard), stick to singles and let the pack-cracking masochists fund the secondary market.
Our newly launched Buyer’s Guide section is your first mate in charting these waters.
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